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NATURES SUNSHINE PRODUCTS INC (NATR)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q2 revenue grew 4% to $114.8M (2% constant currency), driven by strength in Japan, Central Europe, and accelerating North America digital, while gross margin held at 71.7% .
  • GAAP diluted EPS was $0.28 and adjusted diluted EPS was $0.35; both exceeded S&P Global consensus EPS of $0.16, while revenue of $114.8M surpassed consensus of $112.3M; full-year guidance was raised for both revenue ($460–$475M from $445–$470M) and adjusted EBITDA ($41–$45M from $38–$44M) .
  • Adjusted EBITDA increased 8% to $11.3M despite higher SG&A (38.1% of sales), supported by lower volume incentives and FX gains; balance sheet remains strong with $81.3M cash and zero debt .
  • Stock-relevant narrative: a guidance raise, 34% YoY digital growth, and Subscribe & Thrive autoship reaching >50% of DTC (53% per CFO) position North America as a re-accelerating growth driver into H2, while APAC faces tough comps; management expects modest GM improvement despite tariff volatility .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • North America digital grew 34% YoY, with Subscribe & Thrive autoship reaching 53% of DTC revenue; management added ~$1M of incremental digital media spend given strong returns .
  • APAC delivered 5% reported growth, led by Japan’s 27% local-currency growth and stabilization in China; Central Europe reported robust growth and disciplined execution .
  • Company raised FY25 guidance for both revenue and adjusted EBITDA, citing improved momentum and visibility; adjusted EBITDA grew 8% YoY in Q2 .

What Went Wrong

  • SG&A increased to $43.7M (38.1% of sales) on timing of compensation, incremental digital marketing, and non-recurring expenses, pressuring operating income to $4.3M (3.7% margin) .
  • APAC growth moderated in Taiwan and Korea due to macro headwinds, with management signaling low-to-mid single-digit growth for APAC in H2 amid tough comps .
  • Mix and FX headwinds muted gross margin expansion; inventory rose to $69.3M to pre-empt tariff/supply chain risks, impacting working capital .

Financial Results

Consolidated P&L and Key Ratios

MetricQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$118.2 $113.2 $114.8
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$(0.02) $0.25 $0.28
Adjusted Diluted EPS ($)$0.35
Gross Margin (%)72.0% 72.1% 71.7%
Volume Incentives (% of Sales)31.1% 30.8% 29.9%
SG&A ($USD Millions)$43.7 $40.6 $43.7
Operating Income ($USD Millions)$4.6 $6.2 $4.3
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$10.3 $11.0 $11.3

Segment Net Sales

SegmentQ4 2024 ($M)Q1 2025 ($M)Q2 2025 ($M)
Asia$56.3 $48.7 $52.7
Europe$21.3 $24.1 $21.7
North America$35.1 $35.0 $35.0
Latin America & Other$5.5 $5.5 $5.4
Total$118.2 $113.2 $114.8

KPIs

KPIQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
North America Digital Sales Growth YoY+17% +19% +34%
Subscribe & Thrive Autoship (DTC mix)~26% of sales (NA) ~45% of DTC (NA) >50% of DTC; 53% per CFO (NA)
Cash & Equivalents ($M)$84.7 $86.5 $81.3
DebtZero Zero Zero
Share Repurchases540k FY24 ($8.9M) 38k in Q1 ($0.5M) 1,011k YTD ($12.4M)

Results vs S&P Global Consensus (Q2 2025)

MetricConsensusActual
Revenue ($USD Millions)$112.3*$114.8
Primary EPS ($)$0.16*GAAP: $0.28 ; Adjusted: $0.35
EBITDA ($USD Millions)$9.84*$7.77*; Company Adjusted EBITDA: $11.27

Values marked with an asterisk were retrieved from S&P Global.

Highlights: Revenue beat (+$2.5M, +2.2%); EPS beat on both GAAP and adjusted; S&P’s EBITDA actual (definition differs) is below consensus, but company’s Adjusted EBITDA exceeded prior year and aligns with raised guidance .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Net Sales ($USD Millions)FY 2025$445–$470 $460–$475 Raised
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)FY 2025$38–$44 $41–$45 Raised
SG&A ($USD Millions per quarter)H2 2025 assumption~$40–$42 $41–$42 Maintained/Specified
Gross MarginFY 2025 outlookFlat to modestly higher Modestly higher in H2 Maintained
Tax Rate/OtherFY 2025Not specifiedNot specified

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q4 2024, Q1 2025)Current Period (Q2 2025)Trend
Digital acceleration & toolkitDigital +17% (Q4); toolkit planned for H2’25; NA digital +19% (Q1); toolkit launch late Q3/early Q4 Digital +34%; autoship >50% DTC (53%); ~$1M extra digital media spend with strong ROI Accelerating execution; higher investment
Autoship Subscribe & Thrive~26% of NA sales (Q4); ~45% of DTC (Q1) >50% of DTC; 53% per CFO Growing penetration
APAC regional trendsQ4 strong: TW +29%, JP +27%, KR +21%; China up slightly Q2: JP +27% LC; China stabilized; TW/KR softer; guide low-to-mid single-digit APAC growth H2 Tough comps; moderated growth
Europe execution (Power Line, Baltics)Central Europe +17% (Q4); Europe +8% LC; Power Line drives growth Central Europe robust; Europe +1% reported, -2% LC; expect CE double-digit H2 Continuing strength in CE
Supply chain/tariffs/FXModeled tariffs $2–$3M GM impact if fully enacted (Q4); inventory build; diverse supply chain Inventory up ($69.3M) to mitigate tariffs; GM headwinds from mix/FX; expect modest GM improvement Proactive mitigation; gradual GM improvement
Product innovationPower Line success (CE); digital expansion (Q1); toolkit New Marine Glow collagen performing above expectations; focus on daily-use categories Early wins; cumulative impact expected

Management Commentary

  • “We delivered another strong quarter, with net sales of $115 million and adjusted EBITDA of $11 million, up 4% and 8%, respectively, year-over-year.” — Terrence Moorehead, CEO .
  • “We now expect full-year revenue of $460–$475 million… For Adjusted EBITDA, we are now guiding to $41–$45 million… assumes gross margin will be modestly higher in Q3 and Q4, and that quarterly SG&A will be $41–$42 million.” — Shane Jones, CFO .
  • “Digital grew 34%… Subscribe and Thrive… now constitutes 53% of DTC revenue.” — Shane Jones, CFO .
  • “Marine Glow… launched just over a month ago… beating our expectations.” — Shane Jones, CFO .

Q&A Highlights

  • Guidance Range Drivers: Digital acceleration determines reaching top end vs mid/lower end; APAC comps (Taiwan, Korea) drive variability .
  • Incremental Digital Investment: ~$1M extra Q2 digital media spend with strong payback; intent to invest more if returns persist .
  • Gross Margin Outlook: Modest improvement in H2 as FX headwinds abate and pricing/sourcing initiatives flow through; mix remains a headwind if NA outgrows APAC .
  • Capacity/Co-manufacturing: Throughput efficiency improvements create capacity headroom; early-stage third-party opportunities under review .
  • North America Core: Improved activation via touch management, staffing changes, stronger sales support; continued acceleration expected .

Estimates Context

  • Q2 2025 results vs S&P Global consensus: Revenue $114.8M vs $112.3M*; Primary EPS GAAP $0.28 and adjusted $0.35 vs $0.16*; EBITDA company Adjusted $11.3M vs S&P EBITDA estimate $9.84M* (note definition differences) .
  • H2 models likely revise upward on revenue/EPS given guidance raise and digital momentum; watch EBITDA definitions in sell-side models versus company’s adjusted presentation .
    Values marked with an asterisk were retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Guidance raise is a clear positive catalyst; company is executing with balanced growth, cost control, and targeted digital investment, while maintaining a net-cash, zero-debt balance sheet .
  • North America has turned the corner: 34% digital growth, autoship >50% of DTC, and improved core activation support sustained mid-single-digit regional growth in H2 .
  • APAC strength remains anchored by Japan; expect moderated growth due to tough comps; stabilization in China reduces downside risk .
  • Gross margin trajectory modestly up in H2 as FX headwinds ease and sourcing/pricing initiatives mature; mix could cap upside if NA outpaces APAC .
  • Adjusted EBITDA growth (+8% YoY) alongside higher SG&A reflects disciplined spend in high-ROI digital; management will flex investment based on returns .
  • Inventory build and supply-chain actions mitigate tariff risk; any tariff-driven shocks likely near-term and manageable given proactive stance .
  • Near-term trading: favor on guidance raise and EPS beat; medium-term thesis: digital-led transformation, recurring autoship, CE expansion, and product innovation (Marine Glow, Power Line) underpin sustainable growth .